Gross Football Lunch – NFL Week 7, 2023

Recipe of the Week: Pesto Crackers

Ingredients:

• Costco pesto
• Crackers

Method & Analysis:

Sorry everybody! I have too much going on this week to write a proper recipe, but I do have some good news! This week’s recipe – such as it is – is foolproof no matter how many beers deep you’re rolling on Sunday.

First, grab some crackers. Technically, these can be any crackers you want and/or have readily available, however, I strongly urge you to choose relatively non-salty crackers. Saltines are great for a variety of uses, and I will absolutely fuck up a sleeve of Ritz when given the opportunity (this column is not sponsored by Ritz or whichever parent company makes ’em, I forget and can’t be bothered to look it up). But both of these cracker varietals have a good amount of salt on them, and we’re about to smear dollops of pure, uncut saltiness all over them. As someone with a high tolerance for saltiness, I’m telling you: salty crackers are gonna be too salty for this purpose.

Next, grab a jar of Costco pesto (This column is also not sponsored by Costco). For years, I had ambitions to become a maker of great pesto, and then I was given a jar of Costco pesto as a housewarming gift, and immediately realized there was no point in trying. Is Costco pesto good in any real sense? Would those who Know Pesto consider it worthy of superlative, or even positive appraisal? Frankly, I suspect not; it really just tastes like oil with a metric fuckton of salt and Parmesan cheese in it. I couldn’t say. What I can say is that it’s almost certainly better than I could do, even with hours and hours of practice. Costco pesto also has the advantage of being sold ready to eat in a jar, and when you’re a grown-ass man with grown-ass shit to do, that really helps.

Anyway, open your jar of pesto, grab a spoon, and spoon a dollop of pesto onto a cracker. Repeat as needed (or wanted). Have as many as you like, but try and stop at 100 or so. Not bad, huh? Worth the effort you put in, if nothing else.

Week 7 NFL Confidence Pool

Suffice to say, my Week 6 picks were a mixed bag. 9 out of 15 isn’t terrible (and also improves on my disastrous Week 5), but it’s not great either, and since I had 14 on the 49ers and 12 on the Eagles I can only be so happy. These two specific failures have sent me to the point in the season at which, due to the mounting failures of my own guidelines, I start overthinking every single pick and point assignment. My only success in Week 5 came from assigning big points to top teams, so in Week 6 I went big on two legit contenders facing quality opposition and got burned for doing that. I did hedge the Eagles and Bills with slightly lower assignments, but one of those barely worked and the other still cost me 12 points. Hell, even the Dolphins gave me a scare! At home! Against the worst team in the league! What’s a picker to do!? Apparently, I’m to put real trust in the Dee-troit Fucking Lions! I know they’re good now, but can you really blame me for hesitating on that one?

The answer, of course, is yes. Life isn’t fair and football is less so. Blame for any and all failures goes to anyone and everyone who could conceivably have had any hand in causing them, regardless of their actual responsibility for doing so. And even in a week of upsets, I can assure you that someone in your pool saw both the Browns and Jets victories coming, which means that their picks take the prizes and my picks take jack squat. Points are points, and I don’t burn the tape, because I know I have no one to blame but myself. Time to look at the middle and low picks, too.

These picks also had hits and misses alike. Fortunately, I’ve isolated an issue common to all of those misses, and that issue is my sworn enemy of many years, recency bias. Yes, the Ravens blew a winnable game in Week 5, but so what? They’re still better than the Titans. Yes, doubting the Saints in Week 5 cost me, but so what? The Patriots have fallen into the toilet, so don’t overreact when someone kicks their asses. Yes, the Commanders lost to the Bears, but so what? That was a Thursday game – never, ever, ever overreact to Thursday games – and what’s more, was it not I who bravely postulated that the Falcons suck mere days before the Falcons showed us all how much they suck?

With these lessons in mind, it’s time to bounce back. Unfortunately, this is a terrible week to attempt a bounce back. The best teams are either facing another good team or a division rival. The worst teams are facing another bad team or a division rival; note that the Commanders and Giants are both bad and division rivals. There is only one real mismatch to be had, and with so many teams on bye this week’s margin for error is razor-thin, if it exists at all.

One last note, before I get started on picks. I liked last week’s structural conceit of writing a little bit about most games so much that not only am I bringing it back this week, I’m kicking myself for not figuring out this structure until now.

Let’s get to it, with extreme caution!

Week 6 Correct Picks: 9/15 (0.600)

Season Total Correct Picks: 71/93 (0.763)

Week 6 Points: 72/120 (0.600)

Season Total Points: 617/769 (0.802)

Bye: Bengals, Cowboys, Titans, Jets, Panthers, Texans

13 Points: 49ers over Vikings

12 Points: Bills over Patriots

11 Points: Browns over Colts

10 Points: Chiefs over Chargers

This week’s One True Mismatch is a mismatch regardless of whether Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel play or not. The Vikings cannot move the ball against any opposition, let alone a defense of the 49ers’ caliber, and it is imperative that you regard last week’s 9ers loss to Cleveland as a normal loss, not cause for concern. Speaking of Cleveland, this defense will eat Gardner Minshew alive. I would give them 12 points if I trusted their offense at all, but I don’t, so I can’t. Instead, the 12 points go the Bills, who I’ve never trusted less but who also can’t possibly screw this up…right? The Chargers, meanwhile, might not be actually good but are quality opposition, especially in a division matchup. But there’s no way in hell I’d pick them outright, so if I must take the Chiefs – and I must – it’s best to hedge with slightly lower points.

9 Points: Seahawks over Cardinals

8 Points: Ravens over Lions

7 Points: Eagles over Dolphins

Here we have two nearly impossible to pick games between good teams and one game that’s easy to pick, yet hard to trust. I’m not convinced the Seahawks are actually good, but not even the looming specter of divisional chaos is enough to make me view the Cardinals as a real threat. If they win in a blowout and the offense looks consistent, I might start giving them more respect. Maybe. We’ll see.

But these other two games are two prize fights between four of the best teams in the league. It’s exciting, but also both of these games are near coin-flips, hence the relatively low assignments. I have reasons for both selections, though. As impressive as the Lions have been so far (they even have a legit defense!), they have benefited from a soft schedule, and are a mere 1-1 against teams that might actually be good. The Ravens will always confound and infuriate me, but they are at home and they’re at their most vulnerable when they fall behind by multiple scores; these Lions are not a sprint out ahead team. Nor are the Ravens the sort to back down from a brutal rock fight. This game might create a Grit Singularity, which would positively warm my blackened, psychopathic, wish-it-were-still-the-dead-ball-era heart.

As for the Eagles, I must once again make sure we are all on the same page: their loss to the Jets was a normal loss. Do not overreact! If you choose to overreact for some unknowable reason, know that the Dolphins have anywhere near the defensive firepower necessary to win the same way the Jets did. Their only path to victory is starting and winning a shootout. Even granting that Miami is well equipped to do so, that’s a rough way to live, especially on the road. And, even if they succeed in starting a shootout, they may then find themselves in a situation where the team that wins will be the team that can get at least a stop or two. So they can fail to start a shootout, in which case Philly wins, or they can start a shootout, in which case…Philly probably also wins. Probably.

6 Points: Packers over Broncos

5 Points: Rams over Steelers

4 Points: Jaguars over Saints

I originally gave the Jaguars6, but since I cannot confirm Trevor Lawrence will play at press time, I am compelled to hedge with my point assignment. With Lawrence, victory should be easy; with C.J. Beathard, they are probably screwed. I am choosing optimism, despite knowing better. It sucks, because the Packers made a lot more sense as a 5 point pick. They aren’t good, but they’re good enough to beat the Broncos, and probably handily. This Rams/Steelers tilt is a coin flip of a different sort, pitting a movable force against a stoppable object. (I’ll leave it to you to decide for yourself which team is which.) Even though I expect the Rams to be stuck in a road game at home, I’m still giving them the edge because I don’t have to stretch my imagination to envision them scoring a touchdown or two.

3 Points: Buccaneers over Falcons

2 Points: Raiders over Bears

1 Point: Giants over Commanders

As ever when it comes to the Toilet Tier, I don’t have much to say. It would really be nice if I could give the Raiders more than 2 points, but it would also be really nice if I could drink red wine without getting constipated, so I guess you can’t always have nice things, huh? At least my GI tract isn’t stuck with Josh McDaniels. I don’t think it is, at any rate. If it were, I suppose it would explain the other thing somewhat.

ANYway, not a single team in the NFC South can be trusted, but I’m starting to suspect the Bucs are at least decent. And, not that I ever need to provide justification for picking against Washington under any circumstances, but I have a gut feeling they’ll blow this one. Also, Tyrod Taylor is better than Danny Dimes, fight me.

Enjoy the games, everyone!