Gross Football Lunch – Week 7, 2024 NFL Season

Ingredients:

• Box of brownie mix
• Egg
• Vegetable oil
• Water

Method & Analysis:

This week got away from me. I had a few more obligations and duties to see to than normal, which meant I had less time to spend in the Gross Football Lunch Test Kitchen to find recipes I understand well enough to bring to you, my loyal readers. So this week, I’ve decided to cheat.

Before I became a parent, I spent a lot of time worrying about all the stuff I wouldn’t have time for once I had kids to deal with. There would be less time for writing, less time for video games, less time for reading, less time for scrolling through my finest internets, and less time for all of the other stuff I enjoy (or at least trick myself into enjoying). There would also be less time for cooking. As a moderately ambitious home cook, I started to worry about all the shortcuts I would start taking in the kitchen once I also had to chase the ankle-biters around the house while I was trying to get dinner on the table. In my mind, there isn’t anything worth doing that isn’t worth doing right, and taking a shortcut is, by definition, not doing it right. How could I be proud of my cooking – how could I view it as an act of love for the people I care about most – if I started making it easier on myself whenever possible, to the detriment of the finished products?

And sure enough, now that I have kids I don’t have nearly as much time to cook as I once did. But I don’t worry about taking shortcuts as a cook anymore, because I’ve learned that I don’t need to exert maximum effort every time I cook something on order for my cooking to be worthwhile. I am doing the best I can with the time and energy I have, and doing the best I can is good enough, and 99.9% of the time, good enough is perfect. Are brownies from a box of brownie mix going to be the best brownies ever? No, they are not. Can I make better brownies from scratch myself? I most certainly can. Would I have summoned the industry to make brownies at all in these hectic times had I forced myself to make them from scratch? Absolutely not, and that’s ok. The three-year-old liked the brownies I did make, even though they weren’t the best brownies ever, and that’s good enough.

I am not going to walk you through any of the process of preparing box brownies. Even if you’ve never baked anything in your entire life, you know how to read and follow directions. Directions for pre-mixed baked goods are among the most well-written instructions on the planet; so long as you do as the instructions say in the order the instructions specify, not very much can go wrong. Even if something does go wrong, practice makes perfect. However, I must caution that I’m not certain every box of brownie mix calls for adding oil, egg, and water as mine did. I assume every box of brownie mix is fundamentally the same, but I can’t be certain of that. Make sure to check the box you are using for any deviations, and if you can’t tell if your brownies are done, poke a knife in the dead center of the tray. If it comes out clean, they’re done; if it comes out with streaks of wet brownie batter, they need more time. You can do this, and I believe in you.

I like room temperature brownies as much as the next person, but nothing beats pulling a tray of brownies out of the oven, waiting for them to cool just enough to cut them into squares, and going to town on a warm one. I did just that with my three-year-old when I made the tray of brownies pictured above, and we both had a blast. Was it the best brownie I’ve ever had? Not at all. Was it better in that moment to have brownies from a box to share with my kid than no brownies at all? It certainly was, and I regret nothing. Life’s too short to fear taking shortcuts.

I am writing this on the morning of Tuesday, October 15th, having just spent the previous evening staying up until 11:30 Eastern time – well past my normal bedtime of late – in service of watching the entire second half of the Monday night contest between the Bills and the Jets. What began as a reasonably entertaining game of gridiron in the first half devolved into a grueling, unwatchable marathon of personal fouls and missed field goals in the second, a total failure both as an entertainment product and a test of athletic superiority between two squadrons of ostensible adults.

I invoke the name of this cursed display for one reason and one reason only. Every so often, I see or hear someone say something to the effect of, “I miss when opposing teams hated each other.” I’ve had this thought myself from time to time and I get the appeal. Being emotionally invested in a team invariably results in frustration and heartbreak, and these are difficult feelings to process. It is only human to want to see our own overwhelming sports emotions mirrored and validated by the game’s participants. If I personally hate the Packers, it’s natural for me to want every player on the Vikings to personally hate the Packers, too.

But as I watched the flags fly again and again and again last night, I realized that I don’t want teams and players to boil over as the Bills and Jets did at all, let alone with any regularity. It’s no fun and it certainly isn’t emotionally validating; it’s boring and more than a little pathetic. Wanting teams to boil over more often means wanting more penalties, and the mall cop referees are already a little too big for their britches these days.

Perhaps more importantly, the point of professional sports is that the players are professionals! Professionals don’t start shit with other professionals, even if they don’t like each other very much. It’s a real bummer to watch adults with families and mortgages and other grown-up concerns lose their shit on the job; I accept that it will happen from time to time, just as it happens to all of us from time to time at our normal jobs. But I certainly don’t want to see more of it; I want to see adult professionals play the game of football at the highest level. That can’t happen if one or both teams is committing a bone-headed penalty every other snap in a fit of pique.

With all of that said, I’m happy to have bounced back in the Week 6 confidence pool. I’m hardly optimistic that I can keep up this act of new-found competence, but I was hardly optimistic that I would do well last week, so what do I know? If I knew what I was talking about, I wouldn’t have spent weeks 2 through 5 bombing out of respectability entirely. To the picks!

Week 6 Correct Picks: 10/14 (0.714)

Season Total Correct Picks: 52/92 (0.565)

Week 6 Points: 89/105 (0.848)

Season Total Points: 421/754 (0.558)

15 Points: Bills over Titans

14 Points: Commanders over Panthers

13 Points: Chiefs over 49ers

12 Points: Ravens over Buccaneers

If I have any legitimate cause for optimism for my pool down the stretch of the season, it’s that more games played means more information, and more information means more picks and assignments made based on how each team actually looks this year. I made all of my picks through week 5 using nothing more than lingering preseason projections and vibes, which I then supplemented with wild overreactions after the first week. Now I am armed with actual knowledge of which teams are good, bad, both, or neither, and I can find actual mismatches accordingly.

To that end, even though they’ve slowed down after their 3-0 start, the Bills are a no-brainer this week against the putrid Titans, and therefore make an easy choice for the 15-point slot. I don’t believe wholeheartedly in Quality Losses – this isn’t college football – but the Commanders hung tough against the fully awakened Ravens, and looked good enough for me to start considering them Actually Good. 14 points on Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn in Year 1, will wonders never cease? Speaking of the Ravens, I could give them 13 points on the basis of their recent play but frankly, I take the Bucs more seriously than the 49ers at this point and you should, too.

11 Points: Falcons over Seahawks

10 Points: Packers over Texans

9 Points: Vikings over Lions

8 Points: Steelers over Jets

I did say that there were actual mismatches out there this week, but I didn’t say there were all that many of them. Double digits on the Falcons feels ambitious to say the least, but they’re also a weight class or two clear the Seahawks, whose hot start seems to have been nothing more than the result of a soft early schedule. The Packers and Texans seem to be on roughly equal footing as good but not great teams. C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback (Jordan Love has been more erratic than I expected) but the Packers have home field and a better head coach. The Jets are so close and yet so far away from being a good team on the field and the same clown car they’ve always been off of it, and I refuse to take them seriously until I’m forced to.

Now is the time of fear and trepidation, as the NFC North has emerged as a straight-up Group of Death. Each and every division rivalry game will carry grave playoff implications and make me fear for my own safety; the Vikings’ bye week was a rush of fresh oxygen for the raging bonfire of Vikings’ doomerism that burns in my heart. The terror begins this week, as the Vikings host the white-hot Lions fresh off their drubbing of Dallas.

The key matchup in this game is the Vikings’ run defense against the Lions’ offensive line; the Vikings have held up extremely well against the run so far but face their toughest challenge of the season here and the Lions’ line is far better than the Vikings front on paper. If the Lions can move the ball well on the ground, they can stay out of third and long situations. If they can stay out of third and long situations, they can find answers for Brian Flores’ blitzes and coverages, which often leave room to work with underneath. If the Lions can’t move the ball, those same blitzes and coverages should have Goff gasping for air by the second half.

Of course, I will also be watching Sam Darnold and the offense with great interest. The Lions’ secondary is better than it used to be, but he should have plenty of time in the pocket. Aaron Jones did not practice on Wednesday and I’m concerned O’Connell will abandon the run without him, even if the Vikings get out ahead early. This is so exciting and I hate it so much.

7 Points: Bengals over Browns

6 Points: Chargers over Cardinals

5 Points: Rams over Raiders

4 Points: Giants over Eagles

3 Points: Saints over Broncos

2 Points: Colts over Dolphins

1 Point: Patriots over Jaguars*

If the Bengals can win this week – and I don’t see why they can’t – the will earn my official Not Dead Just Yet designation. The Raiders are finally starting to play down to my expectations, and I’ll be picking against them as long as they’re facing a team with a modicum of competence and/or self respect. You may be tempted not only to pick the Eagles, but also to give them 10 or so points; they are certainly better than the Giants, after all. But the Giants aren’t quite as bad as they’re supposed to be and the Eagles aren’t quite as good as they’re supposed to be, and the chaos potential in this matchup is off the charts. I can’t stop you from picking the Eagles, but if you must, exercise extreme caution with your assignment.

Enjoy the games, everybody!