Gross Football Lunch Presents: The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs MegaColumn

The Playoff Confidence Pool rules are as follows:

• Each playoff team is assigned a point value from 1-14, with 14 indicating highest confidence, and 1 indicating lowest confidence.
• You only assign your point values once! All 14 assignments must be made prior to the start of the first Wild Card Game, and cannot be altered after that time!
• After each playoff game, you receive points equal to the value you assigned to the winning team.
• Most total points after the conclusion of the Super Bowl wins. For the purposes of this column, I will note the points earned from winning teams, the points lost on losing teams, and the difference between the two in this space, both for the previous week and the duration of the playoffs.

14 Points: Baltimore Ravens

All of the above guidelines have served me well over the years, but they also strike me as a bit boring. Do I give the max assignment to the Chiefs like a normal person, or do I dare to achieve greatness? Confidence pool guidelines are for people who fear failure; ask yourself, did Michelangelo fear failure when painting the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel? Did Hugo fear failure when he wrote Les Miserables? Did Beethoven fear failure when he composed his 3rd symphony? (The answers, in order, are: probably, I have no idea, and almost certainly.)

I can not let my playoff pool be constrained by such base emotions. I am an ARTIST and I am CREATING, damnit! This pool shall serve as my MASTERPIECE and my TRIUMPH! It will stand for all of the postseason to come, and the remainder of time immemorial thereafter! My GENIUS will be RECOGNIZED, in this time and in all times to come! You shall see! YOU ALL SHALL SEE [is consumed from the stomach outward by a swarm of carnivorous bees]

[reconstitutes]

Ahem. What I meant to say is that picking the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, in a season when they won two fewer games, and in which they do not benefit from a first-round bye, one year after they couldn’t even escape the AFC, may seem a bit precious. But I am not making this pick to be a contrarian little shit (or at least, not solely to be a contrarian little shit), I am making this pick because the Ravens were once again the best team in football this season. At least, they were the best team in football when they weren’t suffering from excessive penalties, poorly-timed defensive lapses, and even more poorly timed place-kicking woes. Nothing is stopping them from suffering from any of these in the playoffs, of course, but my other option was picking the dang Chiefs, and where’s the fun in that?

13 Points: Philadelphia Eagles

Man oh man do I not feel great about this, but I did actually follow my own advice and fill out a bracket, and this is where the Eagles must slot in based on what was foreseen in the scrying ritual. The Eagles have been the actual best team in the NFC for the entire second half of the season. Rumors (started by me, but who’s counting) of Vic Fangio’s juice depletion have been greatly exaggerated, and the coverage unit that was a leading and proximate cause of last year’s collapse is now the scariest in the league. Kellen Moore has made of the most of the absurd offensive talent available to him, which stinks because I was really looking forward to ragging on the guy for the rest of eternity. And while Jalen Hurts may struggle against the blitz, all of the quarterbacks in this year’s NFC bracket have glaring flaws in their game.

So, if I’m resolute in my belief that the Eagles are the best team in the conference (and I am), then what’s my problem with this assignment? While it would be glib and reductionist to claim it’s solely because Nick Sirianni has brain worms (not to mention mean-spirited; who among us doesn’t have brain worms these days), it’s because Nick Sirianni has brain worms. I will him cured if and only if the Eagles five-peat and the championship hardware is renamed the Lombardi/Sirianni trophy. Until then, I mean, Christ. The Eagles should dispatch the Packers handily this weekend, but I’m but one Big Dom vs. Quay Walker scrap away from losing this entire pool to a preventable oversight.

11 Points: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams may be stuck with the NFC’s #4 seed after taking last weekend off, but I remain resolute in my belief that this is The Team No One Wants to Play. Ignore the relative calm of their recent offensive output; the Rams have Matthew Stafford throwing passes to Puka Nacua, using plays designed, scripted, and called by Sean McVay. Their defense is better than it has any right to be, to boot. Their receiving depth is deeply suspect for a would-be contender, but anyone searching for a team without a potentially fatal flaw in this field is going to be looking around for a long time. Superb coaching, explosive passing, competent running, and a pass rush that can show up when it needs to are all a team needs to go on a deep playoff run. Until they run into the Eagles, of course, at which point they will be crushed.

10 Points: Detroit Lions

This might be the last time I ever get to regard the Deee-troit Goddamn Lions with the disdain they have so richly deserved for my entire lifetime, and I’m going to make the most of it. Whereas Sunday’s demolition of the Vikings would put a sensible wannabe ball-knower on notice, my spirit is not weighed down with sensibility. For as good as the Lions are at just about everything, including but not limited MacGyver-ing a competent if not fearsome defense out of practice squad guys and hope, they also walk the razor’s edge. The Lions are an extremely mortal and extremely beatable team. They are vulnerable against any opponent that can stop their offense with some consistency (easier said than done, of course, but the point stands), they are vulnerable against any opponent that can keep up with them on the scoreboard, and they are in deep shit against any opponent that can do both.

The Lions can still make it to, and even win, the Super Bowl, but their road feels more perilous than that of the other contenders, even with the benefit of a first-round bye. Therefore, I’ve decided to give them plenty of points, but not too many. They’re still the Lions, after all. As an aside, I believe I’ve finally become mature enough that I am no longer bothered by the idea of a franchise winning their first Super Bowl before the Vikings do, but if the Deee-troit Goddamn Lions win the Super Bowl I reserve the right to wander off into the mountains and start my life afresh.

9 Points: Buffalo Bills

As much as I want to see the Bills and their fans experience the joy of championship success, I’m having a lot of trouble seeing how This Year Will Be Different. For starters, they are on a direct collision course with the Ravens in the divisional round, and a change in venue does not – I daresay, cannot – constitute a 25-point swing all it’s own. Josh Allen is outstanding, of course, but there’s not much you can say about his talents that you couldn’t say last year, or the year before that, or the year before that. The defense remains competent but is no longer nightmarish, although if you ask me, that might be a blessing in disguise. If Sean McDermott knows he cannot rely on his defense to carry the day when it matters, perhaps he will summon the sagacity to try and win playoff games instead of settling for not losing them.

8 Points: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

To the extent these Buccaneers are celebrated, it is largely due to the career renaissance of Baker Mayfield and, more recently, the extension of Mike Evans’ career-long streak of 1,000 yard receiving seasons. Both players are deserving of all the praise they get, however, I want to challenge all of you to save some of your plaudits for Todd Bowles. Bowles survived four years as the head coach of the New York Football Jets and somehow gained another opportunity to lead a team, thanks largely to the power of friendship. As their reward for doing the sensible thing and hiring the Next Man Up after Bruce Arians’ this time for real, no takebacks retirement, Tampa has received three straight division titles, a playoff win, and the prestige and occasional primetime losses befitting of a non-contending perennial playoff squad. Any number of lesser assholes would have botched this opportunity beyond all recognition. Consider a universe that is just like our own, except the Bucs hired Matt Eberflus three years ago, instead. Our creamsicle fan friends can’t imagine enough Icehouse to erase such horrors.

7 Points: Los Angeles Chargers

It would not be enough for Jim Harbaugh to have grown into his new role as America’s most beloved red ass if he weren’t any good at his job. Granted, it is an endearing thing to guys like me to tap into the Universal Dad and obsess overThe Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald and regard pants solely for their utility, but no one would find any of this bullshit charming if the man didn’t turn his teams around the second they showed up. Speaking as someone with no real sense of how impressive his immediate turnaround at Michigan was (or wasn’t), this year’s Chargers may be his most impressive turnaround yet. That’s it for the good news; the bad news is that a talented but aging defense plus Justin Herbert throwing to no one in particular can’t provide enough liquid to call the resulting product juice.

6 Points: Minnesota Vikings

I am not going to pretend to be able to view my beloved Vikings with a shred of detachment, let alone anything you could twist into a melted-and-recongealed, We Have Objectivity At Home version of objectivity. Suffice to say that Sunday’s decisive loss to the Lions brought me back to reality after I let my stupid homer brain run wild with visions a “realistic” path to the Super Bowl. Even if they can avenge their regular season loss to the Rams this weekend (and as you can plainly see, I doubt they can), I have no real reason to expect a second trip to Detroit would go any better than the first.

Long time readers should not be surprised to learn that I can and will go on forever about all things Vikings unless I stop myself, so I’m going to keep this brief. Even though part of me believes this season is only the beginning of the Vikings’ success, the fact remains that even with a 17-game schedule, 14-win years don’t grown on trees. As such, I am loathe to shrug my shoulders and tell myself Maybe Next Year after such a self-evidently special season, so instead, I’m going to do my best to focus on the positives. If that means assigning them six points – not enough to reflect a first-round victory, but enough to get something back for the pool if they do steal a win or two – then so be it.

5 Points: Pittsburgh Steelers

5 points indicates a team that is not likely to escape the Wild Card round, and for the way the Steelers have played of late, it still might be too much. But residual respect remains my security blanket, always and forever, and so I am compelled to give Mike Tomlin as many points as I sensibly can. There’s also the fact that, while the Steelers are unlikely to beat the Ravens this weekend, the grim specter of rivalry chaos looms large. Not that much imagination is required to picture Pittsburgh mucking up absolutely everything on both sides of the ball and dragging Baltimore down with them, hand in unlovable hand. Anything more than one extremely stupid, narrow victory against a deeply familiar opponent requires actually tortured genius levels of creativity, give or take a few MKUltra leftovers.

4 Points: Green Bay Packers

At this risk of being too confident in my belief that the Packers will march into Philadelphia and get pounded into goo, I’d just like to point out that this has been a richly rewarding season for the dedicated Packers hater. Instead of making the leap, Love and Company had more or less the exact same season they did a year ago, with the same paltry seeding to show for it. Their quarterback remains good but not great, their receivers remain promising but incomplete, and their defense remains talented but vaguely disappointing, if more competently run than previous seasons. The result has been a season of watching Packers Twitter spiral and hopelessly flail its limbs in search of some slim measure of cope, now that they no longer rule the division as though by the divine right of kings. Alas, actual suffering remains too great a wish for you ingrates, so a one-and-done will have to suffice in its stead.

3 Points: Houston Texans

It’s a 2-for-1 special on Failed Breakouts in this stretch of the playoff pool, as the Texans limped through a miserable 10-win season and a successful defense of the NFL’s least prestigious division championship. The Texans do still have a frightening pass rush, which is not nothing, but the offense spent all year sputtering behind an abominable offensive line, with a run game to match. Their best play for the long term is to recharge and reload for next season and hope that, in so doing, they improve enough that this campaign’s agonies are forgotten to time after a couple years of #3 seeds and first-round victories. Note that this will all but require them to quietly show Bobby Slowik the door at their earliest convenience. That sucks for him, but truth be told I’m surprised he lasted this long.

2 Points: Washington Commanders

To say the very least, I did not see this Commanders’ season coming; when I picked them to win the division, I anticipated they would do so with 9 wins at the absolute most. Say what you will about Dan Quinn, but I’m starting to think maybe he’s just the guy this franchise needed to scrub that smell out of the locker room carpet and disinfect it from any lingering Snyder pathogens. Maybe that’s not good enough to for Quinn to take the franchise further than that, but for now, it’s a start. As is always the case in our nation’s capital, thinking about the future is for assholes.

1 Point: Denver Broncos

Congratulations, Broncos! You have returned to the promised land of postseason football because of your hard work, dedication, a shallow conference, and a playoff spot that didn’t even exist the last time you were here. Once the final whistle has finally sounded in Buffalo on Sunday, don’t forget to pick up your consolation prizes! You will receive a copy of the National Football League home game, a party box of hand-crafted, gourmet 10-milligram truffles, and a 2025 season fueled by the heightened expectations of a fanbase that is still spoiled rotten with success even after almost a decade of futility. Best of luck!

All lines pulled from CBS Sports at 9:22 AM Eastern Time on Thursday, January 9th, 2025.

My pick for each game, and the relevant spread, is always listed first. Home teams are displayed in bold.

Houston Texans (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Should You Watch This Game: Good heavens, no! This anti-marquee matinee features two teams that were granted playoff berths solely by virtue of being able to tie their own shoes. Neither team is remotely fun to watch, and whosoever wins this game faces certain doom in the next round. This game is so uninteresting that I refuse to do any research on it. The vibes tell me that the Chargers are just happy to be here, whereas the Texans are deflated and disappointed to have gone no further than last year. Plus, L.A. can neutralize Houston’s one true strength; you can’t use pass rush to your advantage when the opposing quarterback is only dropping back to hand off. That said, I cannot sanction taking the Chargers at -3; that’s about 2 points too many.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Should You Watch This Game: Yes, if and only if you have nothing else going on this Saturday night, and you are already one of Lord Bezos’ loyal vassals. The Ravens/Steelers rivalry is one of the league’s premier matchups for a reason, and this game could get all kinds of weird and tense. I expect the Ravens to handle business, but this line is entirely too high. Yes, the Steelers have exhibited signs of active decay for a couple of months now, and I would pick them to lose by double digits against most every other team, but games in this series that have been decided by such huge margins have been few and far between.

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) vs. Denver Broncos

Should You Watch This Game: Nah, you can sit this one out. While the Bills are always a threat to come out flat and poop the bed, thus creating excitement where none should exist, the Broncos are only here because Andy Reid was wise enough to know that he had bigger fish to fry. Yes, this line is quite high, but so are the chances Buffalo spends 60 minutes whacking Denver in the groin with a sock full of nickels.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

Should You Watch This Game: Yes! This game is the most likely shootout of the weekend, and shootouts are always good fun in moderation. Even if this doesn’t turn into a shootout, I expect plenty of almost cool things to happen. In this worst-case scenario, there will still be lots of dropped Jordan Love bombs and thrilling Saquon Barkley near-heroics. And, while I do my best to gear these recommendations towards casual, neutral observers, I can’t disguise the fact that I think the Packers are about to get their shit rocked, and that makes me happy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Washington Commanders

Should You Watch This Game: You certainly don’t need to watch this game, but I think I’m going to. As with Texans/Chargers, this game grades out poorly in terms of relevance, since the winner of this one is headed straight for a unconscionable skullfucking in the next round. That said, when you shed the expectation of consequences, both teams can are a fun enough watch. I shouldn’t have to work too hard to sell you on the joy of watching Jayden Daniels. The Bucs have Mike Evans, he’s great. It’s also possible Todd Bowles’ plan for dealing with Daniels is frequent, repeated, and creative blitzing. That’s fun! Look at all those slot corners and off-ball guys running at full speed! Neat! Anyway, while Tampa is hardly a complete team, they’re a heck of a lot closer to complete than Washington, and I trust them to get it done.

Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Minnesota VIkings

Should You Watch This Game: I can’t even pretend to be capable of answering this question for neutral fans, as I am honor-bound to stick with this one until the bitter end. But, as with Eagles/Packers, there’s enough receiving talent on both teams that, while I cannot guarantee explosive plays and high scores, I can at least guarantee some fun near misses. While the Vikings might be the “better” team in some vague, useless, Madden ratings-adjacent sense, I am confident of a Rams victory. It’s almost always a mistake to assume a regular season game can predict a playoff rematch, but the Rams’ 10-point victory in Week 8 was no accident. Stafford and McVay are ready, willing, and able to challenge – and decisively beat – even the most diabolical of Brian Flores blitzes. The Vikings’ offensive struggles in Detroit also loom large. If Darnold has a fraction of the accuracy issues that plagued him last week, the Vikings will be dead on arrival.

Week 18 Correct Picks: 8/16 (0.500)

Final Season Total Correct Picks: 176/272 (0.647)

Week 18 Points: 75/136 (0.551)

Final Season Total Points: 1,521/2,202 (0.691)

AFC East

Best Prediction: “But [the Bills a]re the only team in the AFC East that isn’t idling, rebuilding from scratch, or going mad from sheer hubris, which makes them the only sensible pick.” Nailed it!
Worst Prediction: “I am therefore forced to conclude that, for the third consecutive year, [Miami] will rise to their exact level and gracefully exit in the Wild Card round.” Of course, I forgot one of my own truisms, which is that a team that does nothing but tread water for multiple seasons can and will collapse at any point. In other words, a perfunctory first-round defeat was more credit than the Dolphins’ deserved.

AFC South

Placement Prediction Accuracy: 0.500

Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 0.750

Best Prediction: “Houston spent their offseason consolidating their new-found power in the AFC with logical roster additions meant to get the most out of their new hot-shit quarterback. Even if those moves don’t work out, their legibility inspires a confidence that Baalke’s bizarre roster maneuvering could never match.”
Worst Prediction: “For every positive thing one can say about Trevor Lawrence, there is an equal or greater negative thing one can say about Trent Baalke.” As it turns out, one can say plenty of negative things about both of them without letting any of this wishy-washy bullshit get in the way.

AFC West

Placement Prediction Accuracy: 1.000

Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 0.500

Best Prediction: “The Raiders…are entering their 22nd consecutive season as the least serious team in the league. This year brings no hope whatsoever that things will be different. They are doomed to spend this season frantically swapping back and forth between their two terrible quarterback options in a series of ever-increasingly desperate gambits to manufacture any semblance of juice. If only they could fire Josh McDaniels a second time.” No mortal has the Gift of Prophecy, but some of us have the Gift of Pattern Recognition.
Worst Prediction: “And just like the AFC Easts of years gone by, the Chiefs’ division rivals all look to be laying down in one way or another.” I’m torn on how inaccurate this prediction turned out to be. While it in no way anticipates a division that would produce two Wild Cards, neither of those Wild Cards were a real threat to the division title at any point. As such, I’m tempted to argue I captured the spirit of the division results, if not the letter. I gotta move on before I let all this being right go to my head.

AFC North

Placement Prediction Accuracy: 0.500

Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 0.500

Best Prediction: “[Baltimore] is still the team to beat in the AFC North. They retained most of their key pieces, their organizational record for drafting and developing players to replace their departures remains sterling, and yes, they are helmed by the best quarterback in the AFC North.”
Worst Prediction: “I feel a hell of a lot better about the Bengals than I do about the Steelers….” I’m not old enough to remember actually watching the late 80s Dolphins, who sucked so much on defense that they kept Dan Marino out of the playoffs, but after this Bengals season, I think I get what that must have been like.

NFC East

Placement Prediction Accuracy: 0.250

Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 0.750

Best Prediction: “After a few seasons of relatively quiet disappointment, the Cowboys have retaken their rightful place in the league’s drama spotlight thanks to their ongoing game of contract chicken with their three two best players. Naturally, this circus comes to town at a time when their roster is showing obvious signs of decline, and after an offseason where the team made no real moves to reverse any of it…Mike McCarthy is probably on the hot seat, to boot. Conditions are perfect for a shit storm of epic proportions.” Epic was probably an oversell; the greater punditry did us all a favor and stopped paying attention to the Cowboys once Dak got injured. Still, their season went exactly the way we all knew it would.
Worst Prediction: “Seeing as the front office and coaching staff are clearly infested with brain parasites, any argument for an Eagles rebound this season must start with their roster talent. Seeing as the the Eagles had roster talent in abundance last year, I cannot and will not buy it. Also, Kellen Moore sucks and Vic Fangio has been figured out.” When I went back to re-examine my predictions in preparation for this segment, I found that many of my best predictions were the result of sarcasm, disrespect, and other forms of little shit snottery. I went too far with this one, though, as the Eagles roared back into contention and shut me right the hell up in the process. “Don’t Shit-Talk Vic Fangio” doesn’t read like the sort of advice that needs to be said out loud or written down for future generations, but here we are.

NFC South

Placement Prediction Accuracy: 1.000

Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 1.000

Best Prediction: “Welcome to the Kirk Cousins Experience, Falcons fans! You’re about to be shocked at low little fun you’re having…I’m here to tell you today that it is in the essential nature of Kirk Cousins to guide his team just short of expectations. Regardless of how low the bar is set, Cousins will find a way to limbo underneath it. I’m not gonna go so far as to say drafting Michael Penix Jr. in the first round weeks after giving Cousins $200 million was a particularly wise expenditure of team-building resources, but I am saying that, after watching Kirk Cousins for six seasons, I understand.” Once again, louder for everyone in the back, No mortal has the Gift of Prophecy, but some of us have the Gift of Pattern Recognition!!!
Also Best, But Less Broadly Relevant Prediction: “While the Saints have not yet exhibited the decency to collapse just yet, consider this a reminder that there is no wrong time to bet against an ancient, expensive roster with a middling, injury-riddled starting quarterback and a coach who is so powerful and respected his team is willing to disobey his direct orders in public, and to the delight of the team’s social media manager. This is a team that refuses to acknowledge their window slammed shut four years ago, and which must pay the price for their desecration of common sense eventually. Why not now?”
Worst Prediction: Fucking none of them! Go back and check; I had to add a second Best Prediction field in here just to copy and paste most of the rest of my entire division write up, which does not contain a single lie, a single misrepresentation, or a a single word that pointed towards a future other the one encapsulated in our current present. Even my sicko asshole Panthers-squeak-ahead-of-the-Saints prediction proved correct! The lesson is this: In all other respects, live a life that models openness, honesty, and a willingness to reflect on who you are as a person and what you can do better, both for yourself and for everyone else you know and meet. But, when it comes to sports prognostication, being a hater makes you strong.

NFC West

Placement Prediction Accuracy: 0.500

Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 0.500

Best Prediction: “Picking anyone other than the 49ers to win this division may scan as performative disrespect – and make no mistake, it absolutely is that – but it is also a sign of non-confidence in the 49ers’ front office.” The term Super Bowl Hangover is not in the dictionary, but if anyone out there attempts to compile an academically rigorous glossary of football terminology, might I suggest a team picture of the 2024 San Francisco 49ers to accompany the Super Bowl Hangover definition?
Worst Prediction: “[T]he Cardinals now have a decent enough coach in Gannon, a decent enough quarterback in Kyler Murray, and a rookie receiver everyone presumes to be a pre-made superstar in Marvin Harrison Jr.; this is more than enough firepower to compete for the Cardinals to compete for a Wild Card in a thin conference, even with a roster that remains this incomplete.” Update: no, it’s not. Double demerits for assuming a rookie would play like a superstar immediately.

NFC North

Placement Prediction Accuracy: 0.000

Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 0.750

Best Prediction: “This is why I’m worried about the Bears. I can’t tell what their backup plan is, or if it even exists at all…So the Bears have a passable plan at quarterback for the first time ever. That’s great! What sucks is that they have a suspect offensive line, a defense that may or may not be any good, and a head coach who is as good as gone if the Bears miss the playoffs.” Note that, as it turned out, I was being extremely generous to both the Bears as an organization and myself as a sports predictor for calling what the Bears did a “plan”.
Worst Prediction: “I don’t really have too much to say about my Vikings; they are unlikely to be terribly relevant in the bigger picture of this season, and J.J. McCarthy’s injury means they are unlikely to be terribly exciting, too.” I solemnly swear on my grandparent’s graves that this was not any sort of hedge, nor any sort of attempt to engineer a reverse-jinx.

Total Placement Prediction Accuracy: 0.594

Total Playoff Prediction Accuracy: 0.688