Gross Football Lunch – Week 6, 2025 NFL Season

The Minnesota Vikings Bye Week Check-In

The Vikings have their bye this week, and because I am a Vikings fan it is once again time to subject myself to my own battery of open-ended questions. The purpose of this exercise is two-fold. The first is to provide my loyal readers who may or may not have watched much of the Vikings with a fan’s ground-view perspective on their season to date. The second is to practice and model halfway decent mental health habits as a sports fan. To be a fan of a football team is to resign oneself to complete loss of shit over sequences of events that, in the scheme of things, could not possibly matter less. These questions are designed to inspire reflection on what exactly about your team’s performance is driving you to fits of depression and/or rage, so that the next time you watch your team shoot itself in the foot, you can identify the source(s) of your anxiety as they are triggered, and move closer to practicing emotionally healthy sports fandom.

First and foremost, are you having fun watching your favorite team play football this season?

Not at all, thank you for asking. While I tried my best to tamp down my enthusiasm for this year’s Vikings in my season preview, the fact of the matter is that I spent the offseason chugging the purple Kool-Aid, and my expectations were through the roof. Last year brought a surprise 14-3 record despite obvious roster flaws. The offensive interior was still a huge question mark, the defense appeared to lack top-end talent, and even the better off position groups lacked depth. There was no rational, evidence-based reason to believe Sam Darnold would succeed under those conditions.

But succeed he did, and, to my view the team did nothing but improve in the off-season. The Vikings bolstered both the offensive and defensive interiors in free agency, made sensible choices in the draft, and addressed every other position of need in one way or another. McCarthy, now entrenched as the undisputed starter, seemed set up for immediate success as a result; the offensive line would keep him upright, he would be able to lean on the run game, his receiving corps would remain outstanding, and the defense would impose futility on the opposition.

And then, once the actual games started, I was given a harsh reality check. Before getting injured in Week 2, McCarthy was dreadful, verging on unplayable. While I am hardly an expert in the nuances of quarterback play, it was clear that everything McCarthy did was too damn slow. He was slow to get the team to the line of scrimmage (this after an offseason full of gas on how crisp his huddle management was in camp), slow to make his reads, and slow to bail on the pocket to scramble. When he did actually manage to get the ball out of his hands, his throws have lacked zip, and he seems to struggle throwing to the sideline, even at intermediate distances. It was miserable to watch. Since McCarthy’s injury, Carson Wentz has shown limited ability to connect with wide-open first reads in rhythm and on time – which is an improvement in this context – but remains football’s dumbest man. He takes irresponsible sacks, tries too hard to find a big play, and throws just about every ball a few feet too high.

The run game has been frustrating, too. Aaron Jones is on injured reserve but spent his limited snaps trying to bounce outside to a hole that never opens. Jordan Mason has looked great except for when he fumbles, which is often. The offensive line has been playing on shuffle, as injury after injury after injury have forced the Vikings to scrape the bottom of the depth chart in search of warm bodies. Put all of this together and you have an offense that barely functions on its best possessions and has been unwatchable for most of the season to date.

The defense, for their part, has been inconsistent, and do not make enough splash plays or force enough turnovers to carry the team amidst offensive incompetence. The run defense in particular has not played to expectation, as a combination of a lighter defensive line and Brian Flores’ aggressive run blitzing have resulted in lots of plays where the defenders smash straight into their opposing blockers, leaving the intended running lanes wide open. That said, I don’t want to overstate the problems on defense because the defense really isn’t the problem. They are a top-ten unit in points allowed, yards allowed, and yards allowed per play. They’re good, but not good enough to win when the offense doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain.

Having fun as a fan is a matter of expectations. I am not having fun despite the Vikings’ winning record because my expectations for the Vikings got out of control, and I feel like not only a sucker but a hypocrite, too. Was it not I who preached pessimism in my preseason preview? Could I not have foreseen that the (effectively) rookie QB would play like a rookie and the suspect offensive line depth would be tested and the defense would go from outstanding to merely good? In the harsh light of the current reality, every argument for the Vikings success this year appears based on the premise that the Vikings are Built Different; in other words, my operating premise was the same easy lie that every rube tells themselves about their doomed idiot team. I thought I was above such delusions, even as they stared me straight in the face.

What do you want out of the remaining season?

I wrote these questions in a year when the Vikings had a Week 13 bye, and I see now that they make a lot more sense for later bye weeks, when the shape of the season is much clearer. A lot can change between now and the start of the postseason, and there’s no telling where the Vikings will end up down the stretch. Since the Vikings are 3-2 at present, they are theoretically relevant to the NFC playoff picture at present. Therefore, I’ve chosen to consider them as such, even though I’m deeply skeptical they will remain In the Hunt past late November or so.

My point is that I’m still recalibrating my expectations and wants for the rest of the season, but what is certain upon reflection is I want this to work. I want to finish this season with causes for real optimism for 2026, which means that I want McCarthy to become a serviceable starter. I would ask for him to become a good starter, but that feels greedy. What I do not want is for the team to fall into the toilet. I can accept a down year, but I cannot accept or even stomach the idea of starting over with a new quarterback, coach, and/or GM.

If your team misses the playoffs, will you be disappointed (and if so, how much), or is it not that big a deal?

I would not be too sad to see the Vikings miss the playoffs. In case I didn’t make this sufficiently clear, the offense has been unwatchable this season and unless they improve drastically I don’t really want to watch this team play extra football.

Does analyzing playoff scenarios make you feel better or worse?

Again, these questions were designed with Week 13 in mind; there aren’t any actual playoff scenarios to analyze at this time. That said, the Vikings’ remaining schedule is loaded with scary games that, when taken together, will leave no doubt as to their place in the NFC pecking order. This starts immediately after the bye with a home game against the Eagles, and later in the season they face a triple header of fellow NFC midcarders in the Seahawks, Commanders, and Cowboys. And, of course, they still have to play the Lions and Packers twice each. Hell, even the Bears might be getting their act together. None of these games or their related storylines are any fun to think about whatsoever; the only silver lining to the upcoming schedule is the Ravens’ ongoing collapse.

How disappointed will you be if the team makes the playoffs but is eliminated in the Wild Card round? Do you think they have a realistic shot at making a Cinderella run this postseason?

Not at all, because from where I’m sitting they don’t deserve a playoff berth in the first place. Making the playoffs at all will count as a tremendous achievement; unless the offense improves quickly and drastically, a playoff berth can only be the result of a series of improbable events, and can only end in a summary dismissal at the hands of team that actually deserves their spot. The Vikings do not have a realistic shot at anything.

Do you think the team is close to true contention?

No. I said earlier that I feel like a sucker for expecting McCarthy to do well out of the gate, and a big part of that comes from hearing and reading the reactions of my favorite internet ball knowers. While I was weathering an apocalypse of quarterback disappointment, they were largely indifferent because they had the good sense to treat the 22-year-old who sat out all of his first year as the rookie he effectively is. The lesson was clear. I had let my imagination get the better of me and failed to see the Vikings’ situation for what it really was. Were I fan of a different team, none of the Vikings’ offensive struggles would have surprised me.

Now that the shock of McCarthy’s appalling start has worn off, the force of the problem of true title contention is clear. The Vikings are exactly as close to contention as McCarthy is to developing into an above average quarterback, and every aspect of the roster I could nitpick is ultimately a symptom of this root cause. Having a healthy offensive line and a reliable run defense and additional depth at cornerback are all important for their own sake to some degree, but what’s most important about all of these things is that having them will make J.J. McCarthy’s life easier.

McCarthy seems a hell of a long way away from becoming an above average starting quarterback, but I would still like to end on a note of double-edged optimism. This is one of those NFL seasons where every team has at least one glaring, obvious flaw. The Vikings most glaring and obvious flaw is a non-functional passing offense, which is a terrible thing to be bad at. But sometimes an offense needs a few weeks to figure things out, and some of McCarthy’s problems are fixable. In classic rookie fashion, he has yet to recalibrate his game to the speed of the NFL, and he must do everything more quickly and decisively. This is a skill; it can be learned. Young quarterbacks start putting things together down the stretch of their first season every year. Why can’t McCarthy?

Of course, other teams can hammer out their early season kinks, too. I am particularly concerned with the Chicago Bears, who looked terrible in their first two games and much better in the two following ones. The point here is that some teams in the NFC can and will improve on their deficiencies down the stretch of the season, and the Vikings are further from legit than most of their peers. Therefore, my emotional commitment for the rest of the Vikings’ season is this: I am going to remain cautiously optimistic, but now with a much, much greater emphasis on caution.

NFL Confidence Pool – Week 6

Bye: Texans, Vikings

If the Patriots are in fact For Real then it may be worth double digits, but the only way the Patriots can demonstrate that they are in fact For Real is by handling business this week. Best not to bet on the superlative outcome, don’t you think? The Chiefs have regained some ability to gain big chunks of yardage on offense, and they are at home, and they are desperate. But they’re not as good as the Lions, and their all-of-a-sudden anemic defensive line is about to be steamrolled and buried. Them’s the breaks. I would also like to make it known that I resent the fact that the Bears just had their bye week. They really did seem like they might be starting to figure things out, and that’s an extra week of intel I could have used for this pick one way or another. Instead I’m stuck guessing on the pick and assigning too many points to it too, because hell if any game below this one makes any more sense. Them’s also the breaks.

The Jaguars are getting all the gas after this past Monday, but the Seahawks are the real surprise of the season so far. I thought their offense would stink to high heaven, and all they’ve done is play so well that they’re currently second(!!!) in overall DVOA. In this light, a mere five point assignment looks disrespectful, but I swear it’s not! The problem with picking against the Jaguars is that they don’t just win, they win in the silliest ways imaginable. I’m not saying the Jaguars will win on a walk-off two-point attempt safety, but I can’t rule it out, either. By contrast, four points on the Dolphins’ opponent looks disrespectful because it is. I know the Chargers are now down both of their intended tackles but c’mon, man. I really thought this was your year for a few weeks there.

The Panthers are in the exact same place they were at the end of last season. They can win if and only if their opponent is middling or worse and they catch said opponent napping. A team can win more games than you’d think with this strategy, but not nearly enough to be taken seriously. That said, I’m glad that we as a football watching people have decided to set aside the easy dunks and come together to pull for Bryce Young. Can he become a successful starting quarterback? Probably not. Is it a tragedy that he got stuck playing for the single stupidest asshole in a collection of 32 stupid assholes? Most certainly. We have recognized this and we give Bryce Young our love and support for it, and I think that’s beautiful.

Enjoy the games, everyone!